Several Ag Canada acreage projections off-base

In it’s January 20th Outlook for Principal Field Crops, the market analysis group of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada includes seeded acreage projections for the growing season ahead. Many of the projections seem plausible, with some notable exceptions.

All wheat, excluding durum, is expected to see a 4 per cent acreage increase, which seems reasonable given current wheat prices along with concerns about the condition of U.S. winter wheat and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The projection for durum on the other hand calls for a 6 per cent acreage decrease. Again, this is a reasonable projection. In the 2021 drought year durum prices went to the stratosphere. They’ve been much tamer in recent times showing a relatively small premium to spring wheat.

On barley, the Ag Canada projection is a 5 per cent acreage increase and this will have many growers scratching their heads. Feed barley prices are strong from a historical perspective, but the crop pencils poorly compared to other options. Many observers expect barley acreage to be down, not up.

On oats, a dramatic 22 per cent acreage reduction is forecast. While the size of the drop may be debated, there’s near unanimous agreement in the industry that oat acres will take a big hit. Supplies are up and prices are way down.

Ag Canada is pegging canola acreage as up slightly – 1.6 per cent. A price rally in the next couple months could entice more acres. It’s also notable that canola acreage can be up in one province and down in another. Overall, the projection seems reasonable.

Not so with flax where an 11 per cent increase is forecast. Flax acreage dropped 24 per cent in 2022 at a time when flax prices were at historical highs. Flax sales and prices are now disappointing making another drop in acreage seem inevitable. Some growers will bet on a crop that others are abandoning, but many will reduce flax acres or drop the crop entirely.

Ag Canada is calling for pea acres to be down slightly with lentil acreage down marginally. These are plausible. Aphanomyces risk is making some growers wary of these crops. Green peas look more profitable than yellows. Green lentils look more profitable than reds. However, yellow peas and red lentils are the dominant types.

For chickpeas, the projection is for a 10 per cent acreage increase, which is probably too modest. Kabuli chickpea prices have been strong with fairly attractive new crop contracts available. Chickpeas aren’t susceptible to Aphanomyces making the crop an alternative to lentils and peas in the brown and dark brown soil zones.

As well, in the dry fall weather of the past two years, getting chickpeas harvested hasn’t been a problem. On a small acreage crop like chickpeas, the percentage increase in seeded acreage can be dramatic.

That’s the case with mustard which nearly doubled in acreage from 2021 to 2022. For 2023, Ag Canada is projecting an 11 per cent decline in mustard, which makes little sense. New crop prices have been very attractive and contracting has been brisk.

Ag Canada says it’s predicted mustard decline is, “due to low yields from the previous year.” Yields were low because mustard is grown mainly in the areas that were again affected by drought. Hard to believe that mustard acreage will be anything but steady to stronger.

For all the supposed expertise of Ag Canada analysts, you sometimes wonder if they ever talk to very many actual farmers.