Acreage winners and losers for 2023

Price dynamics among the various cropping options could change substantially in the months ahead, but even at this early date some crop choice winners and losers are emerging.

Oats has lost its luster. Prices were record high in 2021. Going into the spring of 2022, oats could be contracted at prices of $6 a bushel or more. Milling oats are now in the $4.00 to $4.50 range, not a lot more than the feed oat values.

Look for the acreage of oats to contract in 2023 unless something drastic transpires.

Flax will likely be another acreage loser. Flax prices were also record high in 2021 and new crop flax could be locked in at a price of $25 a bushel with contracts that included an act of God clause.

That price strength did not translate into an acreage increase. Instead, acreage dropped substantially. Flax is currently selling in the $21 to $22 a bushel range, a major disappointment compared to a year ago. If flax acreage dropped when prices looked buoyant, you’d have to think the crop might see a further acreage drop next spring.

Even when flax appears to offer superior returns, producers tend to shy away from it because harvest can be late and crop residue issues can be troublesome.

It’s too early to predict with much accuracy whether lentil acreage will be up, down or stable, but some switching from red to green lentils could occur. While red lentils are currently priced in the 33 to 34 cent a pound range, large green and small green lentils are well over 50 cents.

Red lentils are adapted to a much wider region, but in the areas that can successfully grow the green classes, the price difference may be appealing. Of course, market forces still have lots of time to narrow the gap.

Some new crop contracts have emerged on all three classes of mustard, putting the crop near the top of the profitability pyramid for the growing season ahead.

One major buyer is offering 85 cents a pound for both new crop yellow and brown mustard with 90 cents on oriental. These are contracts with an act of God clause, but only cover six bushels an acre. Other buyers are suggesting lower contract prices, but more bushels per acre.

A price of 85 cents a pound is $42.50 a bushel. Last fall, contract prices escalated dramatically from the first offerings and ended up in the 90-cent range. It’ll be interesting to see if current prices have more upside potential or whether contracts will be filled causing prices to soften.

Attractive prices going into 2022 generated a big increase in mustard acres, but supply obviously remains tight. Once widely grown in all the soil zones of Saskatchewan, the main concentration of mustard has retreated to south central and southwestern Saskatchewan along with southern Alberta.

Land that has grown canola in recent years (official recommendation is five years) shouldn’t be seeded to mustard because there’s no way to control canola volunteers. Even a small amount of canola in the sample quickly drops the grade and the value.

Even though mustard yields are typically only 50 to 70 per cent those of canola, when you work through cropping budgets, mustard is going to look very strong given the early contract prices. It’s a minor acreage crop, but on a percentage basis it seems destined for another significant increase, the opposite of the outlook for oats and flax.