Well, I was wrong. In this column back in early April, I predicted a rise in canola acreage given its strong new crop prices and superior crop insurance coverage. That isn’t what farmers told Statistics Canada for the seeding intentions report released April 26.
Stats Can has canola acreage down 7 per cent compared to last year. Canola is a relatively expensive crop to grow with high seed costs and high fertility needs. Sky high fertilizer prices may have kiboshed some acreage.
It’s also possible that all the problems last year with late regrowth turned some producers off. And of course, many other profitable cropping options are available so there’s no shortage of alternatives with money making potential.
Here are some observations from the rest of the seeding intentions report.
Nationally, barley acreage is expected to be down about 10 per cent with the biggest decline happening in Saskatchewan – almost 18 per cent. One has to wonder if the flooding in Manitoba will result in more barley in that province as producers look for a shorter season alternative due to seeding delays.
The feed grain complex on the prairies is becoming a puzzle. After drought reduced last year’s barley crop, exports to China were unexpectedly strong. The end result was a feed grain shortage for the domestic livestock industry.
Record quantities of American corn were imported. Some grain terminals turned from being exporters to being importers to provide corn to cattle and hog farms.
One has to wonder about the viability of the prairie livestock industry if feed grains need to continue being imported at great expense just to keep animals fed. Isn’t locally grown feed grain supposed to be our livestock production advantage?
The acreage of oats is expected to increase 16 per cent, but very little stays in Western Canada. Most is exported to the U.S. in either raw or processed form.
Mustard acreage stands out in the Stats Can report, with an anticipated acreage increase of a whopping 48 per cent. However, it should be noted that mustard acreage was actually higher back in 2018.
A relatively small acreage the past few years and then the devastating 2021 drought that hit the main mustard growing region of southern Saskatchewan and Alberta has mustard buyers scrambling for supplies.
New crop mustard contracts with an act of God clause are a no-brainer for profitability, so the increase in intended acreage is logical. A 90 cent a pound price for contract mustard is a handsome $45 a bushel.
However, record high new crop price levels don’t seem to be helping flax. Acreage is expected to be down more than 15 percent despite new crop prices in the $28 a bushel range. Flax is viewed as a troublesome crop because of residue issues.
While dry pea acreage is decreasing by 7 per cent nationally, Manitoba is bucking the trend with a 5 per cent increase. That’s likely due to contracting by the pea protein facilities established in the province.
Interestingly, summer fallow acreage is expected to increase 21 per cent to 1.6 million acres, with most of this in Saskatchewan (up 16 per cent) and Alberta (up 75 per cent). This is probably drought related with producers hesitant to plant into dry ground.
Seeding intentions don’t always translate into actual seeded acreage. High water levels and delayed seeding in southern Manitoba and southeast Saskatchewan are one of the obvious game changers to watch.