It was May 9 and we were hoping to finish seeding chickpeas. The Environment Canada forecast was calling for 30 per cent chance of showers. Surprisingly, showers did materialize and it became too wet to complete the field. Previously, forecasts for rain had mostly evaporated.
This time, showers turned to light rain and then moderate rain and continued through the night. The 30 per cent chance of showers became about 30 mm of rain – the best rain in this area in almost a year. Lighter rains have followed and while it’s too early to proclaim the drought over in this pocket of southwest Saskatchewan, crops and grass now have a chance.
The 30 mm was not widespread, but to get that sort of major rain when the forecast called for only a 30 per cent chance of showers makes you wonder why your check your phone numerous times a day. Weather forecasts seems best viewed with a bit of healthy skepticism.
Some follow The Weather Network forecasts. Others follow whatever forecast their phone provides and don’t really know where the information originates. All the forecasts can be wildly inaccurate. However, people seem to be the least forgiving of Environment Canada miscues.
While this area is happy to have some much-needed moisture to start the season, to the west in southern Alberta they haven’t been as lucky. Meanwhile, the pictures of flooding in southern Manitoba are heartbreaking. The many precipitation events forecast for that region have largely materialized.
Seeding will be seriously delayed in much of Manitoba and some eastern parts of Saskatchewan. While widespread drought was the farm weather story of 2021, late seeding and potentially unseeded acres could be the story of 2022.
Does anyone remember the long-range weather forecasts over the winter? Various services take a stab at predicting spring and summer precipitation months in advance, but I don’t think any of them predicted the major flooding in Manitoba.
Maybe that’s why many people eschew science and would rather listen to predictions based on pig spleens or The Farmers Almanac.
Folklore also plays a prominent role. A neighbour is convinced it will be a wet year because Canada geese are sitting on top of grain bins much more than usual. Of course, this begs the question of why geese have the ability to predict the weather.
We can’t get short-range forecasts right much of the time and our forecasts for the months ahead are largely a shot in the dark, but climate scientists claim to know the trajectory of worldwide temperature change to within fractions of a degree for five, ten and 20 years from now.
For those of us dependent on the weather to make a living, it’s difficult to have much faith in climate change modeling. That isn’t meant to sound anti-science; it’s just being practical.
Here’s a long-range forecast. The next 20 years of weather on the prairies will look much like the past 20 years. Manitoba will sometimes have flooding. The Palliser Triangle will often be too dry. Sometimes there will be widespread crop failures, but overall technology, hard work and adaptation will lead to incremental increases in overall production.
Crop genetics will be more important than climate change for advancing new crops into areas where they weren’t previously adapted.
And 20 years from now, farmers will still be regularly checking weather forecasts and marveling at how they can often be out to lunch.