Pivotal report

Tomorrow, August 20, is going to be a big day for Canadian grain markets. Statistics Canada will be coming out with its estimate of field crop production for each of the grains, oilseeds and specialty crops. This is a bigger deal than usual because there’s so much uncertainty over how much was actually seeded this spring and how much of what was seeded has been flooded out. Stat Can’s estimate of crop area came out on June 23, but it was based on a survey conducted weeks earlier. Producers were unable to seed all the acres they had intended, so the estimates bore little resemblance to reality. On top of that, continuous rains flooded a lot of seeded land and some crops were hit harder than others. On many crops, Western Canadian production has a big impact on prices. Tomorrow’s Stat Can report could be a market mover in canola, oats, flax, lentils, mustard and canaryseed. The price moves could be positive or negative depending upon how the Stat Can numbers vary from trade estimates. With so much uncertainty on seeded acreage, market surprises are much more likely than usual. I’m Kevin Hursh.